Stock outlook: Markets may face volatility; investors to look at tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and FIIs, say experts

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], March 9 (ANI): Market experts have indicated the possiblity of a volatity in india’s stock markets with investors, starting Monday, keenly watching global developments in the absence of major domestic events.

According to analysts, major global developments include fresh updates on tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the movement of the US dollar and crude oil prices.

“Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have slowed their selling in cash markets, but any shift in their stance will remain a crucial indicator for market direction. On the macroeconomic front, the release of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will also be closely tracked,” said . Ajit Mishra–SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Meanwhile, Asutosh Mishra, Head of Institutional Equities Research at Ashika Stock Broking, anticipates that the upcoming week will be volatile, with global trade concerns, macroeconomic data, and FII flows dictating market direction.

He said, “Investor sentiment will remain cautious, with defensive sectors and large caps likely to outperform in the near term. We expect the consumer, BFSI and metal sectors to remain in focus.”

“While some reversal trends have been observed in broader markets, concerns regarding earnings downgrades and expensive valuations persist, making investors cautious,” he added.

The research team of Bajaj Broking in its weekly outlook note added that next week will see key economic data releases from China, India, and the United States, which could influence global markets.

On Sunday, March 9, China will publish its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, offering insights into inflation trends that may affect commodity prices and trade sentiment. On Wednesday, March 12, India will release its CPI (YoY) for February and Industrial Production (YoY) data for January, shedding light on inflation and economic health.

The US will also release its CPI (YoY) for February, an important indicator for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

On Thursday, March 13, the US will report initial jobless claims and February’s PPI (MoM), providing further insights into labor and inflation dynamics.

India’s stock market will be closed on Friday, March 14, for the Holi festival.

“With significant inflation data from all three nations, global markets may face volatility, especially in interest rate-sensitive sectors, as investors assess potential central bank actions and economic growth trends,” the Bajaj Broking Research team added.

After three consecutive weeks of losses, markets made a strong comeback, closing the week with gains of nearly 2 per cent. The recovery was driven by favorable global and domestic cues, instilling confidence among investors. The Nifty settled at 22,552.50, while the Sensex closed at 74,332.58, marking a significant rebound.

The global sentiment improved following reports of a delay in U.S. tariffs and the possibility of further negotiations, which helped stabilize financial markets. Additionally, a weaker dollar and a decline in crude oil prices further boosted investor confidence.

On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to infuse additional liquidity into the system added to the positive momentum. The combination of these factors led to a broad-based rally across sectors, with metal, energy, and pharmaceutical stocks emerging as the top gainers. The broader indices also posted impressive gains, rising between 2.6 per cent and 5.5 per cent.